Same AI, Three Horizons: Why the Application Decides the Innovation
AI models are a great innovation. Using them rarely is. The three horizons show why the application, not the technology, decides the innovation.
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Broken Assumptions: How Good Strategy Rebuilds a Business Model
When an assumption behind a business model breaks, most companies respond with bad strategy. This post argues that broken assumptions are the best possible starting point for good strategy, provided they are treated as a diagnosis. It applies Richard Rumelt’s kernel of good strategy – diagnosis, guiding policy, coherent actions – to the four elements of the business model, which…
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Your Business Model Runs on Assumptions You Stopped Seeing
Every business model rests on assumptions about the world it operates in. The trouble starts when those business model assumptions stop being recognisable as assumptions and quietly turn into certainties. This post begins with Drucker’s account of that mechanism, then shows two sets of assumptions failing under measurement in a single year: the geopolitical order that supplied us with energy,…
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The Powertrain Race Was Never a Technology Contest: Why the Battery Already Won as a Business Model
There is a debate raging across Germany and much of Europe about how cars should be powered in the future. Battery-electric. Hydrogen. eFuels. HVO100. The framing is almost always the same: which technology is best? Which one is cleanest, most convenient, most German? The word you hear most often is Technologieoffenheit – technology-openness, the noble-sounding demand that we keep all…
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The Firebugs in the Attic: Why Sustaining Innovation Never Delivers Business Model Innovation
This post argues that sustaining innovation — accelerators, innovation labs, venture clienting, e-fuels, hydrogen engines — is not dangerous because it fails, but because it works. Working results are the reason nobody has to ask whether the business model still holds. The argument runs through four cases: the record labels and DRM, thirty-five years of German automotive from the 1991…
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HVO100 and the Combustion-Engine Ban: When a Good Study Becomes a Bad Strategy
Why a clean fuel is not a business model — and how Rumelt’s test tells them apart There is a particular move in public debate that I have come to find more interesting than the topics it is applied to. Someone produces a careful, narrow, technically honest piece of analysis. Then a second group picks it up, strips away the…
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